All are in tizzy: normal rules don't seem to apply. Well, rules of #risk & #governance #management DO obtain. 1- do not panic: emotions drive bad decisions! 2- be proactive & not reactive! Proactiveness starts with “first principles” – strip away noise & see the bare bones. What are COVID's first principles? 1- it isn't an existential threat to #society! Worst, it may do less or as much fatal harm as #HIV/AIDS. 2- it strikes via #uncertainty of incidence and a savage reduction of personal and business #confidence. So, COVID19 is Russian Roulette, no one knows whether their shot has the bullet! That wrecks economies and may kill more than the #virus! So, reduce uncertainty via governance decisions. Ok, why the British reversal of its #quarantine order on travel to #Spain? Well, it looks good as a reaction, but it reduces virus uncertainty by a tiny amount in exchange for a major spike in economic uncertainty that may do more harm! Better the #SierraLeone approach of “test before you leave, test when you land, test when you come back” plus monitor after arrival? Surgical precision vs Sledgehammer?
